Craps is what a math expert would call a “negative expectation” game.
100% never lost Craps system. Trip to prx casino started with $155 plyed my free play money on slots 1st eraly at around 5 pm up n down finally huge win $95 got me to $225 off to craps table. When playing craps at casinos, get comfortable with the pass, come, and free odds wagers. The only good wagers are the pass, don’t pass, come, don’t come, free odds, and placing the 6 and 8 wagers. In the beginning, stay with the pass line and a come wager or two (with odds). A new shooter can throw 3 or 4 or more craps in a row and you win! A new shooter can throw 3 or 4 or more sevens in a row and you still win! A new shooter rolls a point, and sevens out on the next roll. Shooter after shooter can do this, and you still win! A shooter can throw 14 passes, or more or less, in a row, and you still win!
This means that the house has a mathematical edge that makes the game impossible to beat in the long run.
This hasn’t prevented gamblers from coming up with craps systems to try to beat the system. Some of these craps systems can be a fun way to play, but none of them can overcome the house edge in the long run.
This post provides a look at why you can’t win at craps in the long run regardless of what kind of betting system you’re trying to use. It also offers a few craps systems for you to try and explains the pros and cons of using each system.
Why Craps Is a Negative Expectation Game
Craps has a mathematical edge for the casino because of the difference in payout odds and the odds of winning. The game is completely random, but this doesn’t mean that it’s a break-even game. In fact, from a mathematical perspective, the game is inherently unfair.
Here’s why.
Every bet at the craps table (except for one) pays off at lower odds than the odds of winning.
If a specific craps bet has 5 to 1 odds of winning, the payout for that bet is only 4 to 1. The difference is the house edge.
This doesn’t mean you can’t win in the short run. In fact, gamblers often DO win at craps in the short run. If they didn’t, no one would play the game. (This is true of all casino games.)
A craps system usually involves lowering and raising the sizes of your bets based on previous results. Sometimes it also involves hedging your bets. You can check our craps bets guide if you need help understanding the following systems.
The easiest way to think of a craps bet, though, is as a negative number. That’s essentially what you’re dealing with here — a negative number.
Doubling or tripling negative numbers doesn’t do anything to make that number positive. No matter how you manipulate those negative numbers, when you add them up, you get a negative total.
It’s impossible to get a positive total when adding a string of negative numbers together.
Some systems might make it seem like you’re bucking the odds in the short run, but they won’t work in the long run.
In the long run, the casino will always win at craps unless you’re cheating.
And I don’t recommend that.
Cheating at casino games is a felony in many states.
Why Gamblers Love Systems
Everyone wants something for nothing. Everyone wants to believe that they can outsmart the house, too. Betting systems offer the opportunity of doing that.
Craps is a game with a lot of different bets available, so it’s ripe for coming up with schemes where you combine multiple bets in an attempt to buck the odds.
And because craps is a game of random chance, every system will work some of the time just because of dumb luck. This will encourage the systems player to keep using that system.
Even when their luck changes, they’ll often remember the success they previously had with the system. They assume that it’s just a matter of time before the luck changes back in the other direction and their system starts working again.
The math behind casino games is often complicated enough that it’s hard to understand initially why a system won’t work.
A Typical Example of a Craps System
Here’s a craps system a friend of mine claims he devised.
You bet $10 on the pass line, $10 on the don’t pass, and $10 on the field at the same time. You also keep doing that on the come and don’t come bets.
The theory is that you’ll either win the field bet or lose the field on a 6, 7, or 8.
If the 6 or 8 comes up, you wind up with a strong come number.
And a 7 would result in a break-even result, although you’d still lose the field bet.
Rather than assume you’re familiar with all these bets, I’ll explain each of them below.
The pass line bet is the most basic bet in craps. It’s a bet that the shooter will succeed by rolling a 7 or 11 on the come out roll or that he’ll succeed by setting a point and rolling that point before rolling a 7 again.
The pass line bet loses if the shooter rolls a 2, 3, or 12 on the come out roll. It also loses if the shooter rolls a 7 on a subsequent roll before rolling the point number again.
The pass line bet pays off even money if you win.
The don’t pass bet is a bet against the shooter succeeding. If the pass line bet wins, the don’t pass bet loses, and vice versa.
There’s one exception, though, with the don’t pass bet. That’s if a 12 is rolled. The don’t pass bet doesn’t win in that exception, and that’s one of the reasons the house still has an edge with the don’t pass bet.
The field bet, unlike the pass and don’t pass bets, is a one-roll bet. (The other bets stay in play for multiple rolls, until one of the winning or losing conditions is met.)
The field bet wins if any of the following numbers come up: 2, 3, 4, 9, 10, 11, or 12.
The only numbers where the field bet loses are the 5, 6, 7, or 8.
The field bet pays off at 2 to 1 if a 2 or 12 is rolled. If any of the other winning numbers result, the payout is even money.
This sounds like a good bet because there are so many potential winning numbers, but the combinations required to get those numbers aren’t as many as you’d think.
You have 36 possible outcomes on a roll of two dice. 16 combinations result in a winning field bet, but 20 of them result in a loss.
A come bet is the same thing as a pass line bet, but it treats a roll subsequent to the come out roll as a new come out roll. It’s probably obvious what a don’t come roll is, but it’s just a don’t pass bet that treats a roll subsequent to the come out roll as a new come out roll.
So the idea behind this system is that if you don’t win pass or don’t pass on the come out roll, you’ll win the field bet. This is true except for when you roll a 12, in which case pass and don’t pass BOTH lose.
The other problem with the system is that all the bets in the system are negative expectation bets, but one of the bets has a far higher house edge than the others.
The pass line bet has a house edge of 1.41%, the don’t pass bet has a house edge of 1.36%, and the field bet has a house edge of 5.56%.
Remember that the field bet is there to compensate for when you lose the pass or don’t pass bet, but the money you keep putting down on the field bet is “taxed” at 5.56% over time. That’s not going to compensate for 1.41% or 1.36% in the long run at all.
In fact, let’s look at the possible outcomes using this system.
What happens when you add all that up?
Here are the total wins or losses over 36 statistically perfect rolls for each total:
For clarity’s sake, I made the losses red to indicate that they’re negative.
That’s a total loss of $110 over 36 rolls of the dice, or an average loss per roll of $3.05.
That’s not a winning system.
It’s not a terrible system. You’ll see a loss of $10 most of the time, but you’ll see wins of $10 and $20 a lot of the time.
You’re just not doing anything that will help you beat the house edge. The Iron Cross System for Crap
Another craps system that takes advantage of the field bet is the iron cross system. Like the system I just outlined in the last section, the iron cross is not a progressive system. You don’t need to raise or lower your bets. You just place specific combinations of bets.
I’ve also seen the iron cross system called the “no seven system.” You cover all the numbers on the table except for the 7. Since most players like to root for the shooter to get a 7 on the come out roll, most iron cross players wait until someone sets a point.
Once that happens, the iron cross player bets on the field and also makes place bets on 5, 6, and 8.
This covers every number on the table except for the 7.
You already know what a field bet is because I explained it in the last section. A place bet is a bet on a specific number, so you’re placing four bets with this system:
If you’re a $10 bettor, you’ll bet $10 on the field, $10 on the 5, $12 on the 6, and $12 on the 8. You have $44 in action by doing this.
On the next roll of the dice, you’ll win unless the shooter rolls a 7.
Since you have 36 possible combinations, this means you’ll see a win 30 out of 36 times, or 83.33% of the time.
The house still has an edge, though, even though you’ll win something on more than four out of five rolls of the dice.
When one of the field number comes up, you get paid off, and your place bets stay up. (The place bets are multi-roll wagers.)
If one of the place numbers hit, you’ll win $14, but you’ll also lose $10 on the field bet, for a profit of $4.
If you’ve ever played craps, you know that the dice sometimes get hot. When that happens, you profit quite a bit.
In the long run, though, when a 7 hits, the house edge will take over and wipe out those wins. You’ll wind up with losses that are what you’d expect based on the house edge.
But you’ll have a lot of fun getting to that point.
When the shooter gets the point, wait until a new point is set before placing another field bet.
If you like a lot of action, this is a fun way to bet because you’ll see a resolution on every roll of the dice one way or the other.
Some players make the iron cross system more interesting by “pressing” their bets.
Here’s how that works.
You wait until you win a field bet three times in a row. At that point, you leave your place bets working until someone rolls a 7. At that point, you just call it a night
Another way to press your bets with the iron cross system is to raise the size of your place bet after a win.
You have $44 in action, and the shooter rolls an 8. You take some of your winnings and increase the size of your place wager on 8, and you take the rest of your winnings and increase the size of your wager on the field bet.
You do this three times in a row, regardless of which bet wins. You raise the size of your bets three times in a row, then you wait until your place bets are resolved one way or the other.
This takes advantage of your occasional hot streak, which will happen more often than you’d think. After all, you’ll win something more than 80% of the time. Reinvesting those winnings is a good idea.
The iron cross, by the way, is my favorite craps system, just because I like a lot of action.
I don’t claim that it’s a winning system. I just think it’s a lot of fun.
Being a recreational gambler, that’s good enough for me.
Conclusion
Craps is some of the most fun you can have in the casino. Any number of craps systems can make the game even more fun, but you MUST understand before playing that no craps system will overcome the house edge in the long run.
In the short term, you might see slightly better results than you’d expect, but eventually, the house edge will always catch up with you.
If you ARE going to try a system to bet on craps, I recommend the iron cross, or no seven, system. With it, you’ll see a winning result more than 80% of the time. This doesn’t put the odds in your favor, but it will sure seem that way until you lose some money.
Please enable JavaScript to view the comments powered by Disqus.
I’m writing a series of blog posts about casino games and the good and bad strategies for playing those games.
Craps is one of my favorite casino games, so I’ve been looking forward to writing this one.
And the beautiful thing about craps is that it’s a game of pure chance. The best strategy is just to choose the bets with the lowest edge for the house and have fun.
But I’ll have some things to say about some of the strategies and systems that other writers promote, too.
They’re mostly bad craps strategies.
Here’s the Only Craps Strategy You Need
When you’re dealing with an entirely random game – like craps – the only strategy that matters is choosing the bets with the lowest house edge and having fun.
The only decision you make in craps is what bet to place.
I’ll have something to say about shooters and whether they have control over the outcomes later in this post, but for now, let’s just agree that games like craps are purely chance.
In other games that are entirely random, like slot machines, you don’t even really need to decide which bet to place. It’s chosen for you before you sit down.
When playing craps for real money, you have a handful of good bets you can make, but most of the bets on the table are bad. Just skip the bad bets, and you’re all set.
The Bests Bets at the Craps Table
The best bets at the craps table are the pass line bet and the don’t pass bet.
The come and don’t come bets are also great wagers.
Quote for luck. I always advise casino gamblers to try to limit their gambling to games where the house edge is lower than 2% — preferably 1.5% or lower.
The house edge for the pass and come bets is the same, 1.41%, which means they qualify.
The house edge for the don’t pass and don’t come bets is even lower, 1.36%, but the 0.05% isn’t worth worrying about. Most people prefer to root for the shooter to succeed.
The other bet to think about at the craps table is the odds bet. This is a bet you can only place after making one of the 4 bets I already mentioned and when the shooter has set a point.
This is one of the only bets in the casino that has no house edge. It’s a break-even bet, but it can be expensive.
It can also drive the effective house edge on the money you have in action down to almost nothing.
Here’s how that works.
How the Odds Bet Changes the House Edge for the Better
If you’re betting on the pass line and the shooter sets a point, you can expect to lose $1.41 for every $100 you bet. That’s on average and in the long run.
If you’re playing at a casino that only allows you to place an odds bet at 1X the size of your pass line bet, you can put another $100 into action.
Your expected loss remains $1.41, though, which effectively cuts the house edge in half, from 1.41% to 0.71%.
If you’re able to bet 2X your original bet on the odds bet, you can lower that even further to 0.36%. (You have $300 in action, but your expected loss is still only $1.41.)
The more you’re able to bet on the odds bet, the lower the house edge for all the money you have in action becomes.
It’s clear why betting on the pass line and taking the most odds that you can is an effective strategy. With the odds bet, you can get the house edge in craps lower than 0.5% at least some of the time at the table, making it an even better game than blackjack.
And what’s more, you don’t have to memorize basic strategy to get the low house edge at craps.
You just need a big enough casino bankroll to make the right bets, and you need enough sense to avoid the bad bets at the table – of which there are many.
Any Strategy that Involves Placing ANY Other Bets at the Craps Table Is a BAD Craps Strategy
There’s a reason gambling experts measure bets according to their house edge. That’s because it’s the single best indicator of how good or bad a bet is.
The house edge is a statistical estimate of how much money you’ll lose as a percentage of your original bet over the long run.
If the house edge is 1.41%, the casino expects to win an average of $1.41 every time you bet $100.
If the house edge is 16.66%, the casino expects to win an average of $16.66 every time you bet $100.
Which bet looks like the better bet for the casino?
And which one looks like the better bet for the gambler?
It shouldn’t be hard to make the distinction.
Most of the bets at the craps table have a house edge of over 9%, making these bets worse than roulette, which is a notoriously bad game for the player.
Even the best of the bad bets on the craps table are inferior to the 1.41% or 1.36% you can get from the pass, don’t pass, come, and don’t come bets.
And trust me on this:
You can have PLENTY of fun sticking with the basic bets at the craps table.
Betting Systems Where You Raise and Lower the Size of Your Bets Are Bad Strategies
The classic example of this kind of betting system is the Martingale System, where you double the size of your bets after each loss. When you do this repeatedly, you eventually win back the money you’ve lost along with a profit of one unit.
The problem with a system like the Martingale is that you’ll eventually run into a big enough losing streak that it will wipe out all those small profits and then some.
![]()
Most people underestimate how quickly a bet’s size gets when doubling after every loss.
They also overestimate how likely they are to avoid long losing streaks.
If you double a $5 bet once, that’s $10.
But if you run into a losing streak of 8 bets in a row, you’re looking at having to bet $640 to make up for your losses.
Also, every roll of the dice is an independent event. The odds don’t change based on how many times you’ve won or lost in a row.
You might think the probability of losing that 8th bet is lower than the likelihood of losing the first one, but the truth is that the dice have no memory. They have the same 6 sides, no matter how many times you’ve lost in a row.
Each bet in craps is an independent event, and any betting system will assume that the odds are changing based on how many times in a row you’ve won or lost.
Winning Craps SystemMoney Management Strategies Don’t Hurt Anything, but They Won’t Improve Your Odds of Winning, Either
Money management strategies involve having strict gambling discipline about how much of your bankroll you’re willing to risk before quitting the game. They also require you to stop when you’ve won an arbitrary amount of money.
Money management techniques are often used in conjunction with betting systems.
Here’s an example of a money management strategy in craps:
You decide your bankroll for the session is $250, and you’re playing for $5 per roll of the dice.
How To Play Winning Craps System
Your stop-loss limit is $100, so, if your bankroll drops to $150, you must quit the craps session and go do something else.
Your win goal is $250, so once your bankroll gets up to $500, you must quit the game and go do something else.
This kind of strategy might increase your chances of walking away from the game a winner.
But that’s only because a lot of gamblers will just keep playing until they’ve lost their entire stake. They just don’t generally have a lot of sense about that sort of thing.
The Jury’s Out on Dice Setting or Dice Control
I’ve seen multiple reputable gambling writers express interest and some belief that some craps shooters can influence the probability of specific outcomes. I’m skeptical – in the extreme – but I’ll give it an appropriate amount of credence.
The idea is that you hold the dice a specific way – “setting” the dice – then throw with a minimum amount of force – just enough to hit the back wall and eliminate most of the rolling action.
A controlled shooting expert doesn’t have to be perfect. Instead, they’re trying to be like someone who’s playing darts. They improve the probability enough to change the negative expectation on a bet to a positive expectation.
For the most part, this means throwing the dice in such a way as to minimize the probability of getting a total of seven.
You can buy books and videos explaining how to get an edge at craps this way, but I can’t imagine the amount of practice and record-keeping required to have any confidence in your ability to change the odds.
Imagine if you spent 1000 hours trying to learn how to control the dice and coming up short. Maybe you just don’t have the knack for it.
That doesn’t sound like a good deal to me.
I’d rather learn to count cards in blackjack.
Conclusion
Those are the best and the worst of the strategies I know of for playing craps in the casino. I know plenty of people who would disagree with every recommendation I’ve made, but the math behind the game doesn’t lie.
The best strategy is to stick with the bets with the lowest house edge and have as much fun as you can.
Comments are closed.
|
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |